UK house prices are on course to rise by an astounding 17 per cent over the next decade according to a bold new prediction by property buying service Good Move. This will bring the average UK house price to £279,641 by 2030, an increase from the current average of £239,927.
To put these numbers into perspective, the average house price in 1980, according to official gov.uk data, was just £19,273 in 1980. This is an extraordinary increase of 1145 per cent in the past 40 years. If you’ve owned the same since the 80’s talk about a return on investment.
Housing market 10-year forecast
The largest five-year increase came between 1985 to 1990, when average house prices increased by 109 per cent to reach £58,250. Interestingly, what followed was the only dip in average house prices, falling by 5 per cent to reach an average of £55,437 in 1995.
The 1980s were a heady time for UK property, with sweeping reforms to the housing sector changing homeownership forever. It set off the almost continuous property value increase that shows no signs of abating even as we’re almost a year into a global pandemic.
If the current property market trends carry on more or less as they are, the UK could see an average house price of £392,301 by 2050.
‘This year, house prices in the UK have increased at an unprecedented rate, increasing by 26 compared to 2015 and 7 per cent compared to 2019,’ says Nima Ghasri, Director at Good Move. ‘House prices have been a huge talking point in the industry this past year, and we wanted to see what we could come to expect if they continue to rise at the same rate as they have since 1980. That’s why we conducted this research.’
When asked whether house prices would definitely hit the predicted benchmarks, Gharsi veered on the side of caution. ‘Many things impact house prices, and nobody can predict for certain what the economy and property market might look like in the future, so this doesn’t mean that our predictions are correct. Still, it’s interesting to see what we could expect in the UK if house prices follow in the footsteps of the past.’
We also are ready to bet that whatever the precise house values are a decade on from now, average salaries are unlikely to catch up at the same rate, and houses will remain unaffordable for a huge section of the population unless drastic changes are made to help first-time buyers and increase housing stock.
Words: Anna Cottrell